The Redshirt leadership are about to set a date for withdrawal at Ratchaprasong and from their rallies elsewhere in Bangkok but a final decision is expected sometime very soon and authorized to be made public.
On Saturday morning, two policemen were killed with many others wounded in more M-79 grenade attacks and shootings in the business district of Bangkok. Blame is being apportioned to the militant wing of the Redshirts, who want total victory, now. Not all sections of the redshirts are happy with the compromise, particularly after losing so many comrades, to the Governments attack on April the 10th, in which which 26 people are believed to have lost their lives, including many Government soldiers. This is one of the primary factors that has delayed a date to end the rallies, so far.
A general election will be held on Nov 14. with a House dissolution in September. That is the compromise on the table in Thailand's political crisis, most parties favour it but there is a considerable section of the Redshirts reluctant to accept. The Royalists want martial law and the Redshirts suppressed ruthlessly, immediately.
One spokesperson has said there may be a hidden agenda within the compromise proposal and further attempts at dispersing the protesters, along with further intimidation by the corporate media mafia. The Royalist PAD are also suspected of being possibly behind the recent attack on the police to provoke a crackdown on the Redhirts. Like the conflict in occupied Ireland the politics are both complex and ugly with many provocateurs, sub-plots and departmental agendas. There are several players in the equation besides the Redshirts and the royalists.
Elite corporate interests, army, police factions, securocrats and feudal warlords are just some.Sondhi Limthongkul the leader of the royalist yellow-shirt PAD and New Politics Party is extremely unhappy with the compromise reached. The reason they are against an early house dissolution and an election in November, is that there is no way they can win, its too soon. If the Prime Minister finished his term, which ends in January 2012, the two years would give the yellows time to organize properly. They might then have a possible chance but six months is too soon.
If the Democrats win, it is a four year wait for the corporate/royalist party. The Prime minister and the new party, share primarily the same middle class base, so if the Prime minister triumphs in November, they will have effectively pushed the new royalist/corporate party into obscurity. If on the other hand the Redshirts win, the new party will be obliterated to oblivion. The corporate mafia media's role is critical in all of this.
The new party demands the prime minister resign for his failure to annihilate the Redshirts. Maj Gen Chamlong has recommended military commanders declare martial law, without seeking permission from the government. Fighting talk and highly reactionary words, hence a suspicion for possible responsibility for the attacks on the police Saturday morning. However to directly connect the attack without proof would be irresponsible. However even if the Government and Redshirts are able to compromise and the Redshirts vacate Bangkok along with parliamentary dissolution and the election, it does not automatically mean there will be peace. What it could mean, is that there will be reactionary elements and new havoc created, similar to formerly Franco Spain.
At the end of the day, this is all about strategy, in a deadly power game. There may be a compromise called but a the peace road map, cuts through a jungle of lions, tigers, bears and hunters in black. For now it is colour coded Reds, Yellows, Multi-colours along with the greens of the army with a new chief in September.Then there is Newin Chidchob's blues who have been quiet and yet to make their play. This mix is what Hillary Clinton referred to as "Thai spicy politics" on her most visit last year.
Thailand abolished slavery less that a century ago, fifty years after the British realized it was more expensive to support a slave rather than an employee and abolished it 50 years previously. Society in Thailand today is still feudal in many respects, hence the importance of Buddhism and the Monarchy for its traditional form of stability. Further discussion of this matter is not permitted under penalty of lengthy prison sentence and of course with rampant censorship along with the British corporate media mafia in occupied Ireland and the UK, it is not possible to report the matter objectively presently there either.
The attack on Saturday involved assassins on a motorcycle opening fire on a group of policemen guarding a bank. They hit three policemen and two civilians. One of the police died later at a hospital. In the other attack killing another policeman, spokesperson Pol Lt Gen Pongsatat Pongcharoen said police believe the grenades were again M79. He said the two attacks were by the same group.
Handling buttless homemade copies of M79 grenade launchers on motorbikes, with only one hand, demonstrating quite a degree of versatility and cool 3 warheads being launched from motorbikes, is reminiscent once again, of the latter stages of the present troubles, on the border in occupied Ireland. There have also been plenty of heavy weapons seized from army depots in the troubled south of Thailand, with cross border smuggling and captures made in confrontation with fighters trained by Al Qaeda.
"Things may get more tense in the coming days," a source has confided.